在今天看見明天

油價拖垮俄羅斯

2015-01-12 18:14

俄羅斯經濟今年預測將衰退4.5%,而對這個石油出口國來說,壞消息還沒完。
The Russian economy was forecasted to contract by 4.5% this year, and it's not the worst part of the crisis the oil-exporting country is facing.

The Economist

Going Down with Oil

The Russian economy was forecasted to contract by 4.5% this year, and it's not the worst part of the crisis the oil-exporting country is facing. With oil prices spiraling downward for the past six months, coupled with the on-going war in east Ukraine triggering waves of sanctions from the West, Russia's ruble has seen one of the sharpest currency depreciations in recent memory, raising alarms about the government's ability to repay it's dollar-denominated foreign debt. To stop the vicious cycle of panic ruble selling, the authority could re-negotiate terms for maturing bonds, or simply put out hard restrictions on foreign exchange. But the inflation was running high before the crisis, even with the emergency measures it's a long shot to save the economy from major bleeding in the coming years.

俄羅斯經濟今年預測將衰退4.5%,而對這個石油出口國來說,壞消息還沒完。油價過去六個月持續崩跌,加上東烏克蘭戰事引發的連串歐美制裁,導致俄羅斯盧布出現近年來最大幣值貶勢,甚至引發俄羅斯政府可能無力償債的質疑。若要阻止盧布持續失血的惡性循環,俄羅斯當局可以爭取公債贖回展期,或是強制下達外匯管制令。不過俄羅斯通膨在此次危機前就處於高水位,即使實施緊急措施,恐怕也難以挽回嚴重衰退的命運。

本文收錄於英語島English Island 2015年1月號

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