今周刊編按：共和黨在美國期中選舉慘敗，美國副總統范斯(JD Vance)在X上發文檢討敗選原因，直言「我們敗選的真正原因，幾乎所有人都心知肚明」，並將矛頭指向伊朗戰爭。
他從一份精準預測選舉結果的民調中發現，許多2024年支持川普的選民都在2026年轉而支持民主黨，他們從共和黨轉向民主黨，主要原因集中在四大訴求，分別是結束戰爭、專注解決生活成本與通膨問、落實「美國優先」政策，以及改變美國與以色列的關係。
范斯強調，「我們敗選的原因就是這場戰爭。總統本人昨晚也這麼說」，如果有人想主張這場戰爭讓共和黨在未來6年失去參議院控制權也值得，那就請明確提出論點，無論他人是否同意。他再次強調，「所有人都知道我們為什麼輸掉選舉」，共和黨未來該何去何從，都必須正視戰爭所帶來的衝擊。
當記者詢問川普對范斯言論的看法時，川普表示，他認為范斯說得很好，並稱：「我知道他對這件事的感受。」
根據《福斯新聞》（Fox News）報導，共和黨選敗後，白宮在美東時間4日上午召開會議，討論選後統一對外說法，隨後范斯便在X貼出長文。有美國官員透露，范斯將組成「新右翼」（New Right）聯盟，新右翼廣義來說是維持川普最初理念「美國優先」的共和黨聯盟，但不捲入外國衝突，讓美國成為美國人養家糊口負擔得起的地方，以及關閉邊境。
在部分右翼人士眼中，伊朗戰爭與以色列在中東的影響力，以及川普和以色列總理納坦雅胡之間的關係，有著密不可分的連結。
這名官員表示，范斯此舉並非要與川普劃清界線，不像前副總統彭斯（Mike Pence）在2021年1月6日國會暴動後公開譴責川普。相反地，范斯希望向那些支持川普、卻不認同其外交政策，甚至感到遭到背叛的共和黨選民，傳達一個明確訊息：「范斯才是我們的人。」
范斯被視為2028年共和黨總統候選人的熱門人選之一。過去兩年來，他大致與川普及白宮的立場保持一致，但在伊朗戰爭議題上，范斯卻是少數公開表達疑慮的政府高層之一，與戰爭部長赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）的立場有所不同。川普今年稍早也曾坦言，范斯從一開始對攻擊伊朗的態度，就「可能沒有那麼熱衷」。
截至報導刊出時，白宮尚未回應《福斯新聞》針對相關會議及范斯選後發言做出回應。
范斯：敗選是因為伊朗戰爭！油價跌破90美元
美國副總統范斯(JD Vance)周三(4日)將共和黨期中選舉慘敗歸咎於對伊朗戰爭，加上川普表態暫無立即攻擊伊朗的計畫，市場押注選舉挫敗將促使白宮尋求外交解決方案，帶動國際油價重挫，西德州原油跌破每桶90美元。
美國西德州中級原油(WTI)下跌7%，報每桶89.40美元；國際基準布蘭特原油期貨下跌近8%，報每桶95.41美元。隨著美伊高層近期均釋出願意透過外交解決衝突的訊號，原油期貨本周以來跌幅已超過14%。
范斯周三在社群平台發文表示：「我們敗選的原因就是這場戰爭，總統本人昨晚也這麼說。」他指出，許多2024年支持川普的選民，似乎因不滿戰爭而在這次選舉中轉離共和黨。
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
民主黨在周二選舉拿下參眾兩院，取得向川普施壓、要求結束戰爭的政治籌碼。這場衝突已擾亂全球能源供應長達八個月，推升汽油與柴油價格，也加深美國選民對生活成本的不滿。
交易員目前似乎押注，共和黨敗選將迫使川普與伊朗談判。川普周二接受《金融時報》訪問時表示，目前沒有立即對伊朗發動攻擊的計畫，緩解市場對選後戰事升級的擔憂。
此前，油市因預期選舉結束後可能爆發更大規模衝突，已將部分升級風險反映在價格中，帶動油價10月上漲逾10%。如今，選舉結果與白宮官員的公開表態，促使交易員迅速調整部位。
油市處於「先開槍、再問問題」交易模式
加拿大帝國商業銀行(CM-US)資深能源交易員Rebecca Babin表示，出乎預期的選舉結果使市場情緒高漲，油市正處於「先開槍、再問問題」的交易模式。
她指出，原先不少觀察人士認為，民主黨壓倒性勝選可能促使川普升高對伊朗的軍事行動，但范斯的言論，以及關鍵盟友未公開表態支持升級戰事，都對這項假設構成挑戰。
范斯也表示，支持戰爭的人可以主張，付出選舉失利的代價仍然值得，但應坦承這項取捨。他強調，所有人都知道共和黨為何落敗，而任何關於未來方向的誠實討論，都必須從這個原因開始。
※本文授權自鉅亨網，原文見此。
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